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Health trajectory analysis

medical needs forecast with BayesiaLab

The databases of the French Health Insurance contain accurate descriptions of the health care trajectories. It is then possible to build a probabilistic model of the patient's behavior to evaluate the impact of the health care demand evolution on the existing health organizations.

A detailed patient


BayesiaLab has been used in a study concerning a population made of elderly patients (more than 15 000 patients) to build a health typology that fits the new demographic issue.

 

BayesiaLab has allowed to build dynamical models representing the dependency evolution and to compare the prediction of those models with real data.

Dependency evolution: time graphic in BayesiaLab


BayesiaLab also allows measuring the regularity of the heath care consumption, post by post, and then to predict the evolution of the need. The network below illustrates such predictive model. MED, PHA, ART represent the reimbursements of the medical consultations, the reimbursements of the pharmaceutical costs, and the reimbursements of the sick leaves respectively.

This network models the distant past influence, recetn or near the immediate future, close or distant