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Webinar Recording

The Fallacy of Single-Point Forecasts

Better and Broader Scenario Assessment with BayesiaLab's New WebSimulator

Recorded on January 17, 2019.

In this webinar, we develop a WebSimulator that allows decision makers to experiment with assumptions for business planning purposes, such as sales forecasts, inventory levels, cost estimates, etc. More specifically, we create a Bayesian network model that explicitly accounts for the uncertainty in all assumptions as opposed to utilizing single-point forecasts. This Bayesian network serves as the inference engine that drives the WebSimulator output.

Given the Bayesian network, we can also use BayesiaLab's Policy Learning function to formally search for optimal decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Importantly, any such "machine-learned solutions" can be easily replicated by stakeholders, who can individually try out various alternative assumptions and policy scenarios in the WebSimulator

 

Webinar Materials

When the original BayesiaLab WebSimulator was introduced in February of 2015,  it has opened up Bayesian networks models to a much broader audience. The BayesiaLab WebSimulator allows you to publish interactive models via the web, without having to install any additional software on the end user's side. Any Bayesian network model built with BayesiaLab can be instantly shared, either privately and securely with clients, or publicly with the wider world.

"Version 1" of the WebSimulator turned out to be a huge success, and it rapidly became an integral part of research workflows. With its growing popularity, however, BayesiaLab users have been developing applications that required greater flexibility and a more sophisticated web interface for the end user.

With the recent release of BayesiaLab 8, we also introduced an updated WebSimulator. Entirely new is the WebSimulator Editor inside BayesiaLab 8, which allows you to design and configure an elaborate web interface with many customizable elements, including bar charts, gauges, etc. Plus, you can immediately review its final appearance with a new preview function.

In this webinar, we will demonstrate all the new features of the WebSimulator by taking you through a complete workflow, from model development to publishing the model via the Bayesia WebSimulator Server.

Professional BayesiaLab Courses

January 23–25, 2019 Cape Town, South Africa Introductory Course
January 29–31, 2019 Pretoria, South Africa Introductory Course
February 27–28 & March 2, 2019 Dubai, UAE Introductory Course
March 5–7, 2019 Dubai, UAE Advanced Course
March 19–21, 2019 Washington, D.C. Introductory Course
April 2–4, 2019 Amsterdam, Netherlands Introductory Course
May 8–10, 2019 Singapore Introductory Course
May 13–15, 2019 Sydney, Australia Introductory Course
May 21–23, 2019 Paris, France Advanced Course (in French)
June 12–14, 2019 Seattle, WA Introductory Course
June 17–19, 2019 Seattle, WA Advanced Course

Upcoming Seminars, Webinars, and Conferences

Live Webinar January 17, 2018 11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. (CST, UTC-6) Introducing the New WebSimulator in BayesiaLab 8
Please check out our archive of recordings of previous events.

7th Annual BayesiaLab Conference

October 7–9, 2019 Durham, NC 3-Day Introductory Course
October 10–11, 2019 Durham, NC 7th Annual BayesiaLab Conference
October 14–16, 2019 Durham, NC 3-Day Advanced Course