Free Seminar for Law Practitioners:
Bayesian Networks — Artificial Intelligence for Judicial Reasoning
Regus — 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20036
Tuesday, January 21, 2020, 2:00 p.m.–5:00 p.m.
"Bayesian networks are the natural language of jurisprudence. They can subsume laws, evidential reasoning, and causal inference. To this day, however, law practitioners have been using a kind of ersatz code — human language."
In this workshop for law professionals, we present a unified, normative framework for judicial reasoning by implementing the Bayesian network formalism with the BayesiaLab 9 software. This provides a visual and explainable approach to Artificial Intelligence that supports core reasoning tasks in the practice of law, such as:
Probabilistic Evidential Reasoning
- Probabilistic reasoning with many pieces of evidence
- Handling the Prosecutor's Fallacy (Fallacy of the Transposed Conditional)
- Quantifying the importance of evidence (Mutual Information)
- Quantifying the conflict in evidence (Bayes Factor)
- Analysis of evidence consistency
- Using joint probability as a measure of plausibility
- Detecting anomalies and deceit
- Reconstructing foreseeability
- Formal and intuitive treatment of causation, prevention, omission, and omission of prevention
- Analysis of proximate causes
- Evaluation of bias claims and discrimination (dealing with Simpson's Paradox)
- Causal inference for estimating effects from observational data and expert knowledge
- Counterfactual causal analysis ("Had it not been for...")
- Computing the "most relevant explanation" of an observed outcome
- Contribution/attribution analysis for allocating damages between multiple defendants
Decision Support & Optimization
Seminar Format, Technology, and Materials
- In this seminar, we alternate slides presentations and group discussions of case studies using BayesiaLab as the reasoning platform.
- The number of participants is limited to 24.
- There will be one 10-minute break at approx. 3:30 p.m.
- You will receive all presentation slides in PDF format.
- You can download all Bayesian network models used in the seminar.
- This seminar is intended exclusively for law practitioners, i.e., lawyers, attorneys, judges, corporate counsels, law clerks, arbitrators, plus law students and law school faculty.
- No mathematical, statistical, or programming skills are required as background.
- Even though the seminar is free of mathematical formulas and statistical jargon, it is a fast-paced and intellectually challenging program. So, your full concentration over three hours will be required.
- Bibliography of Bayesian Networks for Legal Reasoning
- Bayesian Networks & BayesiaLab — A Practical Introduction for Researchers
- Webinar on Causality and Certainty in Criminal Sentencing
- Webinar on Probabilistic Reasoning with Bayesian Networks
- Webinar on Risk Management without Data
- Webinar on Contribution Analysis
About the Instructor
Stefan Conrady has over 20 years of corporate experience in with leading automotive brands, such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Rolls-Royce Motor Cars. Stefan is a native of Ulm, Germany, but his career has spanned the globe, having lived and worked in Chicago, New York, Munich, and Singapore, just to name a few. In his most recent corporate assignment, he was heading the Analytics & Forecasting group at Nissan North America.
Today, in his role as Managing Partner of