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2nd Annual BayesiaLab User Conference

2014 BayesiaLab User Conference Presentations

So you can predict the future... But can you change it?

Alex Cosmas
Chief Scientist, Booz Allen Hamilton

Recorded on September 24, 2014, at UCLA.

The analytics community has invested significant resources in developing effective predictive analytical methods. However, even the most accurate predictive forecasts have limited value unless they can also provide clear action steps to bring about desired results. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) produce accurate predictive forecasts, but with appropriate modeler input are also able to identify causal relationships between variables and pinpoint drivers of desired targets. With causal relationships identified, BBNs may be used in a prescriptive fashion in order to make actionable decisions.

We present a BBN case study in the aviation space which identifies causal drivers of daily flight operations on flight delays and allows us to prescribe delay-reduction plans by acting on controllable drivers.