BayesiaLab
Webinar Scenario Assessment with the Websimulator

Webinar: Scenario Assessment with the WebSimulator

Context & Motivation

In this webinar, we develop a WebSimulator that allows decision-makers to experiment with assumptions for business planning purposes, such as sales forecasts, inventory levels, cost estimates, etc. More specifically, we create a Bayesian network model that explicitly accounts for the uncertainty in all assumptions rather than utilizing single-point forecasts. This Bayesian network serves as the inference engine that drives the WebSimulator output.

Given the Bayesian network, we can also use BayesiaLab's Policy Learning function to formally search for optimal decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Importantly, any such "machine-learned solutions" can be easily replicated by stakeholders, who can individually try out various alternative assumptions and policy scenarios in the WebSimulator.

When the original BayesiaLab WebSimulator was introduced in February 2015, it opened Bayesian network models to a broader audience. The BayesiaLab WebSimulator allows you to publish interactive models via the web without having to install any additional software on the end user's side. Any Bayesian network model built with BayesiaLab can be instantly shared privately and securely with clients or publicly with the wider world.

"Version 1" of the WebSimulator turned out to be a huge success, and it rapidly became an integral part of research workflows. With its growing popularity, however, BayesiaLab users have been developing applications that require greater flexibility and a more sophisticated web interface for the end-user.

With the recent release of BayesiaLab 8, we also introduced an updated WebSimulator. Entirely new is the WebSimulator Editor inside BayesiaLab 8, which allows you to design and configure an elaborate web interface with many customizable elements, including bar charts, gauges, etc. You can immediately review its final appearance with a new preview function.

In this webinar, we will demonstrate all the new features of the WebSimulator by taking you through a complete workflow, from model development to publishing the model via the Bayesia WebSimulator Server.

Presentation Video

Presentation Materials

2019-01-17-WebSimulator-Webinar-V2 (opens in a new tab)

BayesianNetworkModel1.xbl (opens in a new tab)

BayesianNetworkModel2.xbl (opens in a new tab)

About the Presenter

Stefan Conrady has over 20 years of experience in decision analysis, analytics, market research, and product strategy with Mercedes-Benz, BMW Group, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, and Nissan, which included assignments in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Today, as the Managing Partner of Bayesia USA and Bayesia Singapore, he is recognized as a thought leader in applying Bayesian networks to research, analytics, and reasoning.

Recently, Stefan and his colleague Dr. Lionel Jouffe co-authored Bayesian Networks & BayesiaLab — A Practical Introduction for Researchers, which is now available as an e-book.

See Also


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