From Bayesian Networks to Causal and Counterfactual Reasoning
Keynote Lecture at the 2014 BayesiaLab User Conference
Recorded on September 24, 2014, in Los Angeles.
Judea Pearl, UCLA
The development of Bayesian Networks, so people tell me, marked a turning point in the way uncertainty is handled in computer systems. For me, this development was a stepping stone towards a more profound transition, from reasoning about beliefs to reasoning about causal and counterfactual relationships. In this talk, I will survey the milestones of this journey, and summarize the practical and conceptual problems that we can solve today and could not address two decades ago.