Market Share and Metrics Association: An Insight into Real-World Data Using Bayesian Networks

Market Share and Metrics Association: An Insight into Real-World Data Using Bayesian Networks

Presented at the 2024 BayesiaLab Conference in Cincinnati on April 11, 2024.


This study delves into the effectiveness of an integrated, weighted approach in influencing strategic brand decisions, highlighting the constraints of traditional machine learning and data science techniques that rely heavily on large, clean datasets and struggle with complex variable interrelations. By adopting Bayesian structural equation modeling, our research leverages prior knowledge, expert insights, and beliefs, focusing particularly on how various metrics impact market share. Through primary search surveys across different market segments, we assess brand perception, aggregating data from numerous sources over a set timeframe for comprehensive analysis.

The methodology begins with exploratory data analysis, leading to the testing of probabilistic associations to validate hypotheses and develop the model. An unsupervised network graph forms the core of our model, illustrating the interactions between variables from disparate data sources at a specific time. This base model undergoes scrutiny for statistical robustness and output validation, considering both total and direct effect values to determine weighted coefficients. Further refinement of the network model incorporates business and market inputs, ensuring the model's assumptions align with real-world conditions without undermining its stability. This strategic methodology offers nuanced, actionable insights into a brand's market position, enhancing adaptability and strategic decision-making as new information emerges.

About the Presenters

Rahul Pandey, AVP Digital and Advanced Analytics at Course5 Intelligence

Rahul is an Applied AI and Data Science leader, experienced in setting up and scaling multi-disciplinary global high-performance applied data science teams in India and the US. Rahul is recognized as LinkedIn's top voice for – Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, GenAI, and Leadership. Rahul has also been awarded twice as “40 under 40 data scientists” in India consecutively in 2023 and 2024. In his current role, Rahul heads the ‘Global Data Science Practice’ at Course5i and has been instrumental in scaling data science practice and solutions at course5i. He has developed multiple solutions, written papers on applications of Generative AI, and presented them at conferences across the globe. He specializes in creating data science strategies to solve problems through thought leadership and the application of advanced algorithms for executive leaders in Fortune 100 and Fortune 500 companies across verticals. He has also developed unanimous trust among industry stalwarts for solving problems that reflect business value.

Rahul Pandey

Anand Wilson, Senior Data Science Consultant, Advanced Analytics and Applied AI, Course5 Intelligence

Anand has over 11 years of experience in applied artificial intelligence and data sciences. He creates market solutions based on Bayesian Network theory, which can quantify causality in observational studies. His work and research areas include Knowledge Modelling and Machine Learning with BayesiaLab. Anand has a background in applied statistics and a keen interest in machine reasoning, causal inference, and experimental design.

Anand Wilson

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