Bayesian Climate Intelligence: Modeling Uncertainty Across Scope 3 Emissions and Green Chemistry

Charlotte King, Sustainability Scientist & Advisory; President, “The Climate Consortium”

Abstract

This presentation introduces a Bayesian Climate Intelligence framework that applies Bayesian network modeling to sustainability science, bridging the gap between emissions data, green chemistry, and broader climate systems. Building on research presented at the Green Chemistry Conference, the session demonstrates how probabilistic reasoning can uncover hidden dependencies across Scope 3 emissions, material innovation, and policy outcomes.

Using Hellixia-generated networks and open-source climate data, we illustrate how Bayesian models guide decision-making under uncertainty—forecasting environmental, health, and economic impacts. Case studies highlight applications in green chemistry substitution, supply-chain emissions forecasting, and climate resilience planning.

By merging climate science with Bayesian analytics, this work positions Bayesian networks as vital tools for advancing sustainability decisions across business, academic, and policy domains—helping stakeholders navigate complexity with transparency, adaptability, and evidence-based foresight.

About the Presenter

Charlotte King is a Sustainability Scientist, with a Master’s in Sustainable Energy & Environmental Management, Georgia Tech. Her work bridges Bayesian modeling, environmental policy, and systems innovation. With over 25 years of global experience, she integrates probabilistic frameworks, business materiality, and anthropogenic-centered adaptation to advance climate intelligence and climate policy forecasting.

As Founder of the Climate Consortium of the Commons, Charlotte leads initiatives connecting environmental economics, science-based solutions and comparative public policy – NA, EU, & China. Her prior research using the Hellixia Framework has informed her work with the American Chemical Society on Green Chemistry, Scope 3 Emissions and SDG 3.

Invited to the White House in 2024 for the U.S. Trade and Climate Forum, Charlotte has researched/advised across forestry, aviation, and automotive sustainability. A peer-reviewed researcher and frequent conference presenter, she is recognized for translating complex data into actionable insights, earning over 600,000 media impressions and a network of 13,000 professionals worldwide.