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Probability Table Analysis on Target State

Target Analysis Report — Probability Table Analysis

Context

  • This analysis report is available for any Target Tode.
  • It allows computing the impact on the Target State when slightly modifying one probability of a node's Conditional Probability Table.
  • This is done for each cell of each concerned conditional probability table.

The sensitivity function used is:

P(he)(t)=P(h,e)(t)P(e)(t)P(h|e)(t) = \frac{P(h,e)(t)}{P(e)(t)}

where hh represents the hypothesis (Target Node = Target State), ee represents the context and tt the probability.

  • The derivative of this function is computed as well as the minimum and maximum values when setting the probability to 0% and 100%.

This HTML report has several sections:

Analysis Context

  • Provides a description of the observed variables when the analysis is carried out.

Probability of the Target State

  • Probability of the target state knowing the observed variables (context).

Maximum Derivative

  • This table summarizes the nodes with a maximum derivative different from zero.
  • It is ordered from the greatest to the smallest derivative.

Insensitive Nodes

  • This table contains the nodes with a derivative equal to zero.

Tables of Sensitive Nodes

  • For each sensitive node, a table represents each combination of its values and its parents' values. Each cell contains two parts:
  • The part on the left indicates the derivative computed for each combination of states. The background of the maximal derivative is yellow.
  • The part on the right shows the probabilities of the target state when the probability of the a current node's state is set to 0% and to 100%. Obviously, those probabilities are symmetrical for binary nodes.

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