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Cluster Interpretation: Dynamic Profile

Background & Context

Dynamic Profile for Cluster Interpretation

  • We can use BayesiaLab's optimization tools to work with more complex sets of evidence. One of these optimization tools is the Dynamic Profile.
  • The Dynamic Profile uses a greedy search algorithm for simulating sets of evidence for maximizing the probability of Cluster 3.
  • It may seem counterintuitive to think of optimizing evidence to achieve membership in Cluster 3. After all, we cannot modify body measurements.
  • However, we can think of those characteristics, which assign a subject to Cluster 3 most quickly, as prototypical traits of Cluster 3.
  • To start Dynamic Profile, select Main Menu > Analysis > Target Optimization > Dynamic Profile.​
  • In the Dynamic Profile Settings, we need to specify that we want to maximize the probability of Cluster 3 by searching across Hard Evidence.
    DynamicProfileSettings
  • Clicking OK starts the search and quickly produces a solutions table, which opens up in a new window:
    DynamicProfileReport
  • The starting point is the row in the table marked A priori, which shows that , i.e., the marginal probability of C3.
  • If we were to evaluate the hypothesis, 3 - Bicep Girth>36, the posterior probability would increase, i.e.,  .
  • In this case, the Bayes Factor is 3.172, meaning that with this hypothesis, a C3 membership is 3.172 times more probable than without.
  • Setting 7 - Hip Girth≤101.8, the probability of C3 membership increases further to 72.938%.
  • With 4 - Navel Girth≤85.2 and 6 - Forearm Girth>29.4, we reach a C3 probability of 100%.
  • As a result, we can interpret this set of evidence as a prototypical profile of a subject in C3:
    • 3 - Bicep Girth>36
    • 7 - Hip Girth≤101.8
    • 4 - Navel Girth≤85.2
    • 6 - Forearm Girth>29.4​

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